Ukraine War, NATO Enlargement, and European Security
October 13, 2022
SPEAKER:
Mr. Sean Monaghan
Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)
United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK-MOD)
DISCUSSANT:
Mr. John Woodworth
US Department of Defense (retired)
Charlotteville Committee on Foreign Relations
Post-Meeting Resources
Slides from the talk (PDF)
Sean’s hybrid warfare manual (PDF)
Contact Information:
Sean Monaghan
U.K. Visiting Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
[email protected]
https://www.csis.org/people/sean-monaghan
Twitter: @SMonaghanCSIS
You are invited to a Zoom webinar.
- When: Thursday, October 13, 2022 09:00 AM Pacific Time (US and Canada)
- Topic: “Ukraine War, NATO Enlargement, and European Security“
- Register in advance for this webinar:
- https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_4F6iRF4MRAyJUBKZONg2RA
- After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
To help you stay informed about the rapidly changing and very dangerous situation in Ukraine please check out our Ukraine War resource blog page on the NSF website where we are posting timely information and thought pieces from different perspectives. You can also watch videos of all of our programs at our website: NSF website. I encourage you to send topic requests, and questions, to me at: [email protected]
Register NOW 13 October Program: Welcome back to our Ukraine War Series. This is the seventh program in our Special Topic discussion series. In light of all that has happened in Ukraine over the last couple of weeks, we thought it was vitally important to return to this topic.
Mark your calendars: If you are local or happen to be in Reno in early November, please join us for our Anniversary Celebration Event at the Reno-Elks on 07 November 5:30-8:30p. We will be honoring our founder Ty Cobb and MGEN Ondra Berry (The Adjutant General of Nevada) will be our keynote speaker. EARLY BIRD tickets are available until 09 October at: NSF Anniversary Event Tickets
In case you missed it: To kick-off the NSF fall virtual program series we took a retrospective look at the War in Afghanistan, 21 years after it started and one year after we withdrew our forces, precipitously. Our speaker Ms. Kate Bateman – former project lead for Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) Lessons Learned program lead and current U.S. Institute of Peace, Afghanistan Lessons Learned project lead – shared some incredible insight into what we learned (or didn’t) during our 20 years in Afghanistan. Her tour de force review of Afghan history and our role in it, in just over 10 min, is well worth a listen. Check out our video library on the NSF website to hear (or re-hear) her excellent 22 Sep NSF program at: NSF Program Videos
“On 29 June 2022, NATO invited Sweden and Finland to join the alliance. Both countries said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and domestic reappraisals of their security environment had prompted them to end decades of neutrality and military non-alignment to seek to join the Euro-Atlantic security alliance. NATO allies signed the Accession Protocols on 5 July 2022. The UK Government laid the Accession Protocols the following day.” (Louisa Brooke-Holland, in NATO enlargement: Sweden and Finland, Research Briefing, 11 July 2022, House of Commons Library)
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb 2022 upended nearly seven decades of peace and security in Europe and catalyzed a dramatic rethinking about what European security looks like now and for decades in the future. NATO is at the forefront of that rethinking with “Enlargement” (no longer called “expansion”) as a centerpiece of the transatlantic partnership. On Wednesday 10 Aug, President Biden signed the treaty to admit Sweden and Finland into NATO, following ratification by the Senate. The United States joins 27 (out of 30) NATO countries that have ratified a new NATO that includes Sweden and Finland. Only Hungary and Türkiye remain.
After Russian forces conducted sham elections in the eastern Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, Putin illegally annexed 15% of Ukraine’s territory on 30 Sep 2022. None of these territories were fully under Russian control at the time and Ukraine continues to retake cities such as Lyman, in the Donbas region. Putin’s threats to the West and nuclear saber-rattling ratchets up daily as Russian military losses mount.
Where does this leave European security in the near and long-term? To guide us through this thicket of a rapidly changing battlefield shaped in large part by the unity of the new NATO, we are honored to have Mr. Sean Monaghan from CSIS (courtesy of the UK Ministry of Defense) present our featured talk. Mr. Monaghan will share his insight on how Europe’s perception (and reality) of security was upended by the Ukraine War and what role a reinvigorated and enlarged NATO will play in shoring up security for Europe in the future.
As Europe looks down the barrel of a gun (or heaven forbid, a nuclear missile), the United States is counting on NATO to be the first (and hopefully, last) line of defense. Our discussant, Mr. John Woodworth, had a distinguished career working on many of these issues for the US Dept. of Defense. Together Misters Monaghan and Woodworth will share thoughts on whether the world, threatened and reshaped by Mr. Putin, can rely on NATO to exert military strength (or the threat thereof) to slow (and eventually end) the carnage in Ukraine and to reclaim some sense of security for the US and our allies in Europe.
Please join us for this very important and timely program and be ready to share your thoughts and questions with our speakers.
Recommended reading for studious NSFers and guests:
- By Sean Monaghan (6 Oct 2022), “Five Steps NATO Should Take after the Nord Stream Pipeline Attack” at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/five-steps-nato-should-take-after-nord-stream-pipeline-attack
- By Hans Von Der Burchard (8 Oct 2022), “‘Sabotage’ causes major train disruption in northern Germany” at: https://www.politico.eu/article/sabotage-causes-major-train-disruption-northern-germany/
- By Sean Monaghan (23 Aug 2022), “The Sword, The Shield, and The Hedgehog: Strengthening Deterrence in NATO’s New Strategic Concept” at: https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/the-sword-the-shield-and-the-hedgehog-strengthening-deterrence-in-natos-new-strategic-concept/
- By Sean Monaghan (28 Jun 2022), “Resetting NATO’s Defense and Deterrence: The Sword and the Shield Redux at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/resetting-natos-defense-and-deterrence-sword-and-shield-redux
- By Sean Monaghan (25 May 2022), “Reviving the Prospects for Coercive Diplomacy in Ukraine at: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/05/reviving-the-prospects-for-coercive-diplomacy-in-ukraine/
- By Sean Monaghan (09 Feb 2022), “To Change Putin’s Behavior, the West Needs a New Strategy at: https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/for-nato-deterring-a-ukraine-russia-war-isn-t-enough/
Stay tuned in and watch videos of our recent NSF programs on our War in Ukraine series and earlier programs at: https://nationalsecurityforum.org (scroll to the bottom of the landing page to watch the videos).
Sean Monaghan is a visiting fellow in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he focuses on NATO, European security, and defense. His career as a civil servant in the UK Ministry of Defence has focused on international defense policy, including NATO, the European Union, and the United States. In recent years, his work as a policy analyst has seen him contribute to the United Kingdom’s Integrated Review and lead multinational research projects.
For more information you can visit his CSIS profile or find him on Twitter (@SMonaghanCSIS).
John Woodworth’s career in international affairs and national security policy has involved work in government, education, consulting, and civic organizations. He held various senior positions in government, including Ambassador and Deputy Negotiator for INF in the US-Soviet Nuclear and Space Talks, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy, Secretary of Defense Representative on the US Delegations to the UN Committee on Disarmament and the CSCE Stockholm Conference on Security in Europe, and principal nuclear policy advisor at the US Mission to NATO. Following government service, he has provided consulting services in international affairs and national security policy to a number of government agency and private sector clients. He came to Charlottesville in 1994 as a Senior Faculty Member and Special Advisor for International Studies at the Federal Executive Institute, where he developed and taught courses on global trends, coordinated leadership programs, and facilitated professional development teams. Among activities in civic organizations, he was Chairman and Director for Programs of the Charlottesville Committee on Foreign Relations, served on the International Council of the University of Virginia, and was a member of the Community Advisory Committee of the International Rescue Committee in Charlottesville. He is an Officer of Elections and Precinct Chief in Albemarle County, and has served on numerous overseas election observation missions for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, including in Macedonia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Belarus, Montenegro, and Moldova. He has been a Visiting Fellow at the National Defense University, and a Fellow in Public Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. He received his BA degree from Duke University in history, and a Master of Science in Foreign Service degree from Georgetown University.
The National Security Forum is a non-partisan, educational, nonprofit organization dedicated to fostering civil discourse and informed discussion about timely and important national security topics. We bring expert speakers from around the U.S. to talk about national and international security, domestic and foreign terrorism, economic and financial threats, the safety of our food and water supply, energy policy, electrical grid stability, and a variety of other topics that affect all Americans. The National Security Forum partners with the Washoe County School District to host an annual Youth Security Forum to encourage future generations national security leaders.