Summary of the Presentation and Discussion on….
Air-Sea Battle in the South China Sea
with
Kevin Cole (COL/USAF-ret)
And comments by Admiral Scott Conn
Tensions are rising in the West Pacific, particularly in the South China Sea, as Beijing creates new “islands” and claims a 12-mile sovereignty around them. China has become more assertive in the region, following two decades of impressive economic growth that, in turn, has allowed the PRC to exponentially expand its military forces. While China denies having any territorial ambitions in the region, CoL Cole (and his co-authors) noted in a recent article that “recent territorial claims and aggressive actions in the South China Sea represent…. acts that threaten regional security”. This includes, according to the authors, growing “and more robust power projection capabilities”.
The U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM), particularly its air component, the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF), have been developing capabilities to respond to a “powerful adversary” in the region. The planning has focused on modernizing “Air-Sea Battle” concepts into doctrine and operational tactics as a counter to more sophisticated air-to-air and air defense capabilities that the potential adversary forces have generated. The plans are directed towards securing unimpeded military actions, “regardless of the domain”. This translates into having capabilities to conduct defensive operations in a range of areas- air, sea, space and cyber- that Pacific Command calls “A2/AD operations” (“Anti-Access & Denial”).
The Problem at Hand: Opposing a great power is a means of asserting one’s own power, and several countries aspire to be great powers regionally if not globally. One expression of power is the ability to deny access or disrupt operations, and many countries seek to strengthen their anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities as a means of asserting regional control and influence.
Tensions in the Pacific: In its 2010 white paper on national defense, the PRC says that it “will never seek hegemony,” that it “opposes hegemony and power politics in any form,” and that it “pursues a national defense policy which is defensive in nature.”
More importantly, to assert these claims, the PRC has built a robust, power-projecting A2/AD capability that could be brought to bear against the United States, its allies, and its partners.
One way China is achieving its long term goal is by “creating artificial lands” in the middle of the ocean. For instance; the Spratly Islands have become unique construction site. Submerged reefs are now artificial islands. They have created more than 3.9 SqMls of new land on seven sites across an archipelago whose total land area had been 1.5 SqMls. Fiery Cross Reef (which was submerged at high tide when first occupied in 1988) now has a land mass of 1.1 SqMls, a 10,000 foot runway and a 155 acre harbor. It is now many times larger than Itu Aba, the largest natural island in the Spratlys. China had created 1.5 SqMls and 5.6 SqMls at Subi Reef and Mischief Reef, respectively, and these numbers are still growing
With respect to China’s strategy, the PRC is pursuing a strategy derived from Sun Tzu’s Art of War: This is usually called, “Preparing for Winning Without Fighting.” The overall objective is to gain control of the South China Sea, but not through large battles.
Rather, China wants to achieve its objective through activities that create new facts on the ground (and the water), set up the playing field and psychologically change the strategic calculus of other nations.
The underlying logic of this strategy is to shift the propensity of things in favor of Chinese dominance by maneuvering the strategic configurations of the region.
From the PRC’s six-decade long involvement in the South China Sea three “imperatives” emerge:
The first imperative is to avoid large battles as much as possible; clashes can be initiated, but only to exploit an existing favorable situation
The second imperative is to control the most strategic positions in the area
The third imperative is to develop these positions into strong points of control, robust hubs of logistics and effective bases of power projection
For the U.S. the “Bottom Line” is “ Anti-Access /Area Denial (A2/AD)”
The US Response (“Strategic Guidance”), laid out in June 2012, specifically tasked the US military to project power despite A2/AD. To deal with the A2/AD problem, the US Department of Defense (DOD) has turned to Air-Sea Battle (ASB), putting concepts into practice.
United States Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) is working through United States Pacific Command (PACOM) to evolve ASB concepts into doctrine and operational action as a counter to A2/AD practices and as a means of prevailing in the face of informationized warfare.
ASB is a modern combined-arms (joint warfare) concept that takes into account the prevailing geographical domains in the Asia-Pacific—air and sea along with the domains of space and cyber.
One way PACAF trains to the ASB concept is thru exercises; specifically Northern Edge and Valiant Shield. Northern Edge is held in Alaska in odd Years while Valiant Shield is held on Guam in numbered even Years. The goal is to build on each other and create new tactics.
Another way PACAF seeks to influence the region is with the CBP, or “Combined Bomber Presence”. Based on Andersen AFB Guam, the CBP consists of B-1, B-2 and B-52 aircraft, coming to the Pacific on a rotational basis. CBP aircraft accomplish regular training and exercise participation, advance and strengthen alliances and long-standing military-to-military partnerships, and ensure continued access to the global commons for all.
CBP missions commonly integrate with U.S. and allied fighter and support aircraft, including the Royal Australian Air Force, Japanese Air Self Defense Force, Republic of Korea Air Force, Royal New Zealand Air Force, Royal Malaysia Air Force, Philippine Air Force and more.
In sum, PACAF is working diligently to ensure US presence in the Pacific region stabilizes the region and supports our allies.
Colonel Kevin Col has served in Desert Storm, Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom campaigns. He logged 140 combat flying hours during Desert Storm, commanded the 13th Expeditionary Air Support Operations Squadron in Ramadi, Iraq, during Iraqi Freedom, and headed up the USAF security teams providing protection for the first free elections in Afghanistan. He holds MBA and MS degrees from Embry-Riddle University. The link to his PowerPoint is below.
Air-Sea Battle and the Pacific Presentation
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Observations on COL Cole’s presentation by Admiral Scott Conn:
I very much appreciated being invited to the NSF that covered Air Sea Battle and how it relates to the South China Sea. I thought Kevin did a great job of painting the landscape, while at the same time identify some of the key challenges we will face. China is clearly making investments in increasing the size of their force, as well as investments in key technologies that mirrors the same types of effort we see in other places across the globe: the proliferation of precision and range. The bottom line here is that the United States no longer holds a monopoly on advanced warfighting technology.
That said, shooting weapons at great ranges against moving targets poses significant technical challenges in and of itself. There is a difference between the kinematic capability of a weapon (how far it can fly) and the operational reach of sensors and networks to provide queuing with the proper latency (time), to a weapon. In a near peer, or peer competitor engagement ordnance will go two ways: from us and at us.
Other than those brave Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Marines who had boots on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States has not seen this type of Warfare since Vietnam. We must be in a position to master the electromagnetic spectrum in order to build sufficient sanctuaries in time, space, and spectrum. Our job is to, first, preserve peace. Then, if we must, to fight and win major combat operations against a peer or near peer competitor. The Navy refers to this aspect of mastering the Electromagnetic Spectrum as Electromagnetic Maneuver Warfare.
Finally, Kevin talked about the various domains that will come in play in the South China Sea: Space, Air, Surface, Subsurface and Cyber. One domain, however, that I think often gets overlooked is the Human Domain. We have the best trained Joint Force in the world. Period. We must continue to make the investments in our training environments that will afford us to learn faster while preserving this asymmetric advantage in the future.
–Rear Admiral Scott D. Conn is the Commander, Naval Aviation Warfighting Development Center at the Fallon Naval Air Station. He has flown over 100 combat missions and has accumulated over 4,700 flight hours and 1,000 arrested landings. He was the recipient of the 2004 Vice Admiral James Bond Stockdale Inspirational Leadership award.