Four Watershed Elections
By Tyrus W. Cobb
This week witnessed a series of elections with far-reaching implications. A Hindu-Nationalist and now the inspiration for India’s underprivileged swept to power in the world’s largest democracy. And, in Ukraine, billionaire Petro Poroshenko scored a stunning first-round victory in that embattled country’s presidential election. Now comes the hard part: governing a country facing Russian-inspired separatism, bureaucratic inertia, widespread corruption, and needed economic austerity measures. Further west, the elections for the European Union parliament were marked by a surge of support for far-right parties, especially in the UK and France, with leaders who have anti-Semitic, authoritarian, xenophobic, and Pro-Putin inclinations. Finally, in Egypt, General Al-Sisi is winning a resounding, if not, surprising election as president. The test now will be to see if Al-Sisi can govern democratically—or will he fall back on his authoritarian past when the going gets tough. As it will.
Hindu Nationalist Narendra Modi sworn in as India’s PM
Narendra Modi shed his baggage as an extreme-Hindu nationalist to lead his Bharatiya Janata Party to a stunning victory in India’s parliamentary elections. The vote represented a decisive rejection of the governing Congress Party, whose decade of leadership has been marred by a series of corruption and graft scandals. The election appeared to indicate that the country has had enough of dynastic leaders in rejecting the Congress Party’s president, Sonia Gandhi, and the chief campaigner, Rahul Gandhi, the son, grandson, and great grandson of prime ministers. Modi, in contrast, has served as Chief Minister of Gujarat province, opening his state to foreign investment and building roads and infrastructure. Modi, a lover of technology, also ran the most costly, tech savvy, and ambitious political campaign in India’s history. He has committed to lead an honest government that will create jobs and opportunity, a message that went over well with India’s young, increasingly plugged-in, and affluent electorate.
Modi’s election was quickly hailed by President Obama, who immediately invited the new PM to make an official visit to the United States. Of course, there is a bit of an obstacle here since Modi is still on a U.S. visa denial list because of his past association with Hindu extremism, including questions over his failure to stop the carnage connected with Hindu and Muslim riots in 2002 that left more than a thousand dead. But, that is the past, and, for now, it appears that Obama will welcome Modi, the son of a tea seller from one of India’s lower castes (and a “community organizer”) as someone who shares a humble past similar to his own. Modi’s decisive victory and his focus on promoting honesty in government and the wellbeing of India’s underprivileged will make him a welcome guest in Washington.
It was no surprise that Afghanistan’s Harmid Karzai attended the inauguration, but it certainly was that Pakistan’s own Prime Minister, Nawat Sharif, not only attended, but was even invited! Sharif reportedly broke down crying when he saw a photo of a young, malnourished Modi in his mother’s arms receiving scarce food. Perhaps, a breakthrough in India-Pak relations! Perhaps.
Political earthquake as anti-establishment parties gain in Europe
“Eurosceptic nationalists” scored stunning victories in European parliamentary elections Sunday as critics of the European Union more than doubled their seats. Major breakthroughs were scored by Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigrant, anti-euro National Front, which won 26% of the vote in France, comfortably ahead of the conservative UNP at 20%, with the governing Socialists scoring only 13.8%—their second heavy defeat in two months.
Although the pro-European center left and center right will keep control of the 751-seat EU legislature, the number of Eurosceptic members more than doubled. European parliament president Martin Schulz of Germany lamented, “It’s a bad day for the EU when a party with such a racist, xenophobic, and anti-Semite program gets 25% of the vote in France.”
In addition to extremist views held by many National Front supporters, observers are concerned about the growing affinity of the European far-right with Russia. Last month Ms. Le Pen blasted the EU for declaring a “Cold War on Russia” and embraced separatism in Ukraine. As for Vladimir Putin, she praised him as “a patriot who upholds the sovereignty of his people” and “defends the values of European civilization.” Values? Maybe like invading and intimidating neighbors, jailing dissidents, stuffing ballot boxes, and attempting to restore the glory of the Soviet Union? The French vote, coupled with the surge of support for the far-right UKIP in Britain (29%), might indicate that fascism is no longer just a piece of Europe’s past, but also a realistic possibility for its future.
Ukraine Chooses Pro-Western President
Petro Poroshenko won a decisive victory in the Ukrainian presidential election, securing an unprecedented majority in the first roundby scoring well across the country, including parts of the Russian-speaking East. He defeated three other pro-European and two pro-Russia candidates, the latter winning a mere 6% between them. Interestingly, Ukraine also shunned the ultra-nationalists who did so well in the European parliamentary elections.
The vote was hampered, but not blocked, by actions of Russian agents in Eastern Ukraine. While separatists in Donetsk and Lugansk prevented millions from voting and destroyed ballot boxes, the pro-Russian separatist elements were soundly defeated, even in the East. The president-elect received congratulations from Putin, and Poroshenko indicated he was eager to have discussions with Moscow.
Poroshenko himself is a self-made billionaire, creating a fortune off his chocolate enterprises. He faces numerous problems besides countering Russian intervention. Extensive governmental corruption needs to be reigned in, energy prices must rise despite the social upheavals that it may cause, and the economy—which will likely shrink 5% this year—must be subjected to extensive austerity and reform measures. Will the populace support Poroshenko as he implements tough austerity measures…or will Moscow’s offer of heavily subsidized gas supplies begin to look more attractive? And, despite the corruption and mismanagement of the Ukrainian government, will the West provide needed technological, economic, and even military, assistance to Ukraine?
President Sisi Now Faces the Hard Part—Reforming Egypt
Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi, the charismatic and popular army general who led the overthrow of the elected government of Mohamed Morsi, will win Egypt’s presidency with a decisive victory. While the Muslim Brotherhood boycotted the election and there have been irregularities in the electoral process, there is no doubt that Sisi now enjoys widespread support among the Egyptian people. The president is a conservative, authoritarian nationalist who served as chief of military intelligence for former president Mubarak. There is fear that Sisi, once he encounters opposition to any badly needed reform programs, will revert to accomplishing his goals through non-democratic means inspired by his authoritarian past. As the Guardian (UK) newspaper has pointed out, Sisi needs to understand and live with the messiness, noisiness, and irreverence that mark a democracy.“Provided he listens, accepts public criticism, and learns from past mistakes, Sisi could bring the stability Egypt needs,” the Guardian editorializes.“If he doesn’t, there could be more trouble ahead, perhaps far worse than anything we’ve seen since the overthrow of Mubarak in 2011.”