Tariffs and Economic Security:
Navigating the rapidly changing tariff news blitz
Wednesday, June 18, 2025
NSF Hybrid Event
In-Person at
Tamarack Casino
13101 S. Virginia St, Reno, NV
(Park and enter using Banquet Hall door on the north side of the building)
Breakfast served 8:00-9:00am, Forum 9:00-10:15am
$30 members/$35 guests
Virtual on Zoom
Forum 9:00-10:15am PST
Register in advance for this webinar:
https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_y1VfqZfMSPyrD2DTsUfueA
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
SPEAKERS:
Dr. Stan Veuger
(Senior Fellow in Economic Policy, American Enterprise Institute)
Dr. Stephen Miller
(Professor of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas)
(Director of Research Center for Business and Economic Research)
Thank you to all who joined us on April 30th for our Youth Security Forum (YSF) Sneak Peek and for our outstanding YSF event on May 20th at University of Nevada, Reno. We owe a debt of gratitude to all the amazing volunteers and donors for making the event possible. We have around 400 students from six WCSD schools attend and engage in a very lively discussion about the impacts of AI on national security.
Rex Briggs started the event off with a “live-fire” exercise about a reported break-in at the Tesla Gigafactory. The deepfake scenario (webpage mocking a RGJ article with audio and video clips) was disturbingly convincing to several people in the audience. However, many of the students recognized it as a deepfake almost immediately. Arianna Bennet (KTVN News Anchor) then shared some insight about how journalists are dealing with the explosion of disinformation. Prof Patrick File kicked off the afternoon session sharing his version of draft legislation to punish those who share disinformation and challenged the students to discuss this in the context of the 1st Amendment.
The students and teachers were very engaged. Our only regret was that the day wasn’t longer so we could here from more students.
You can check out some local news coverage about the event at:
More about our upcoming event on June 18th…
During our March forum there was an overwhelming request for a program about tariffs and economic security. I heard you and have arranged for two excellent speakers to address this topic. Dr. Stan Veuger, Senior Fellow in economic policy at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) will share insight on the complex world of tariffs before and now during the second Trump Administration. I expect he may be editing his slides the morning of the talk. Dr. Stephen Miller (no, not that Stephen Miller!), UNLV Professor of Economics, will bring the tariff issues closer to home with remarks about the impact to Nevada from the current/future (maybe) tariffs.
Tariffs, Economic Security, and National Security Nexus
“I will impose a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports to the United States,” President Trump declared on his self-styled “Liberation Day,” framing tariffs as a weapon to rebuild domestic industry and curb adversaries’ leverage. Inside the Federal Reserve, Governor Christopher Waller called the tariff blitz “one of the biggest shocks to affect the U.S. economy in many decades,” forcing the Fed into “fire-fighting” mode to model inflation and income losses. The dissonance between strategic intent and economic side-effects captures why tariffs now sit at the intersection of economic and national security.
AEI scholar Stan Veuger underscores the macro-risk: “Even the mere threat of tariffs causes inflation,” he warns, pointing to price pressures that precede any actual levy. In a companion piece, Veuger argues that tariffs trigger currency appreciation that “erodes any competitive gain US exporters hoped for.” More broadly, tariffs are taxes that are typically passed on to importers. They distort the decisions made by American consumers and businesses alike and keep the gains from trade from materializing. In addition, the chaotic and unpredictable manner in which they have been imposed has created tremendous uncertainty for households planning to purchase durable goods and firms as they consider long-term investments.
For military leaders and policymakers who rely on real purchasing power to sustain force readiness, these findings translate abstract economics into operational risk: higher input costs for everything from jet-fuel additives to micro-electronics ripple through the defense supply chain long before Congress can adjust budgets.
The national-security logic behind tariffs is straightforward
- Denying adversaries strategic revenue. Cutting import flows reduces the hard-currency earnings of rivals, limiting their ability to finance military modernization.
- Hardening critical supply chains. Raising the domestic share of production in semiconductors, rare-earth magnets, and steel lowers vulnerability to coercive embargoes.
- Creating negotiating leverage. Tariffs offer an easily dialed-up deterrent—less escalatory than kinetic options yet painful enough to extract concessions.
But the same instruments can boomerang. The Council on Foreign Relations reminds policymakers that “Tariffs raise prices for downstream consumers and can harm a country’s exports if trading partners retaliate,” warning of blowback that can sap alliance cohesion and fiscal capacity. Inflationary spikes erode domestic support for long wars; retaliatory duties on U.S. defense exports shrink economies of scale for next-generation weapons; and allies forced into counter-tariffs may hesitate to align on sanctions or basing rights.
Bottom line for the national-security community
Tariffs can buy time to on-shore sensitive production and signal resolve, but their utility is perishable. Veuger’s inflation alert and the Fed’s crisis modeling show how quickly economic turbulence can outpace strategic gains. The task is to weigh the marginal security benefit of each tariff tranche against three real costs:
- Budgetary drag: higher procurement prices squeeze readiness.
- Diplomatic friction: allies hit by “one-size-fits-all” tariffs may hedge.
- Strategic distraction: economic instability can crowd decision-makers’ bandwidth just when focus on emerging threats is essential.
Smart strategy treats tariffs as a scalpel, not a broadsword—targeted enough to deny adversaries critical rents without dulling America’s own economic edge. Anything less risks converting a tool of power into a self‑inflicted vulnerability. Drs. Veuger and Miller will be our guides to help us understand more about the role, impacts, and unintended consequences that tariff wars can/are having on our national security and what all this means for Nevadans.
NSF remains committed to keeping you informed about issues beyond the headlines and from multiple perspectives. Stay up to date on NSF programs by subscribing to our mailing list at: NSF Mailing List or better yet become a member at: Become a Member. We meet at Tamarack Casino in South Reno. When you turn into the parking lot turn right and follow the signs for the “Banquet Room.” Park anywhere on the northside of the building and enter via the walkway into the reception hall for the banquet room. We will see you there!!! You can always email Kimberly at: info@nationalsecurityforum.org or me at: mccarthy@nationalsecurityforum.org if you have questions or need more information about the location.
Dr. Stan Veuger is a senior fellow in economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the editor of AEI Economic Perspectives, and an affiliate of AEI’s Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility. He is also an affiliate of Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies and a fellow at the IE School of Politics, Economics, and Global Affairs. He was a visiting lecturer of economics at Harvard University in the fall of 2024 and a Campbell Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution in May 2022. Dr. Veuger’s research has been published in leading academic and professional journals, including the Journal of Monetary Economics, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, and The Review of Economics and Statistics. He is the editor, with Michael R. Strain, of Economic Freedom and Human Flourishing: Perspectives from Political Philosophy (AEI Press, 2016) and Preserving Links in the Pandemic: Policies to Maintain Worker-Firm Attachment in the OECD (AEI Press, 2023). Dr. Veuger comments frequently on economics, politics, and popular culture for general audiences. His writing has been featured in The Bulwark, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York Times, USA Today, and The Washington Post, among other outlets. His broadcast appearances include CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Telemundo, and Univision. He received a PhD and an AM in economics from Harvard. He also holds degrees from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, University of London, and Utrecht University. Dr. Veuger serves as a director of the Netherland-America Foundation and as a member of its executive committee.
Dr. Stephen M. Miller is a Professor of Economics and at University of Nevada, Las, Vegas and Director of Research, Lee Business School’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER). He served as CBER Director from 2015 to 2021. Miller authored over 190 academic papers and gave over 150 professional seminars around the world. He guided over 40 graduate students in multiple universities to master’s and doctorate degrees. Miller was a founder and Initial Chair, Board of Directors of the Economic Club of Las Vegas. For 31 years, Miller was a Professor of Economics (Head 12 years) at the University of Connecticut. He holds a MA and PhD in Economics from SUNY Buffalo and a BS in Engineering Sciences from Purdue University.
The National Security Forum is a non-partisan, educational, nonprofit organization dedicated to fostering civil discourse and informed discussion about timely and important national security topics. We bring expert speakers from around the U.S. to talk about national and international security, domestic and foreign terrorism, economic and financial threats, the safety of our food and water supply, energy policy, electrical grid stability, and a variety of other topics that affect all Americans. The National Security Forum partners with the Washoe County School District to host an annual Youth Security Forum to encourage future generations national security leaders.
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