I am very interested in this topic.
How do I sign upon the web site for the next NSF meeting?
it is a great article for those who are interested in foreign affairs as veteran diplomat like kissinger presents in depth his vision towards arab spring and american interests and its priorities , stability or democracy
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i think in egypt now condition is much better, ikhwanul muslim must be proud to be elected as a new president. i hope a political crisis can be solved in all middle east countries
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Prabowo Subianto is a military icon. He delivers when the need arise and always true to his word. Decisive and determine in his style of leadership. With a population nearly 270 million people and a country struggling to cope with eradication of poverty and corruption amid rapid economic developments, there is no telling of the immense pressure and challenges. Thus Indonesia needs a strong leader who could be counted on delivering and fufilling the needs and wants of the common men. Prabowo Subianto suits this profile. The future is his.
Assad is a dictator: no doubt. But who are the rebelians? Are they all honest and good people? Aren’t the simply a number of different armed groups? If they are, why do not each Syrian citizen support them except a small number of elite Assad’s group? Why there are a huge number of people supporting Assad’s regime?
What will we get if Assad’s regime fall in terms of human rights and democracy? Will we have democratic government right away or will we have a lot of groups struggling for power years and years after like in Lybia or have destabilization process with radicals infiltrating government like in Egypt?
Did we get success in Irak after Suddam? Is it stable? Is it safe?
Only Afganistan became a little better just because there was the worst situation with islamic radicals and they were trying to spread themsleves further – but not I do not see they way out to make it a decent country if American troops leave it – by my opinion it will simply be recaptured by taliban very fast.
Why everybody think that as soon as a regime of this or that dictator fall down all problems will be solved?
I think that as long as the mentality of the people will stay the same these people will get a new dictator who will look decent at the beginning and the world soon will have to solve a new problem.
To make a country good in democratical terms like US, Canada, Germany, UK etc. we need to change people’s mentality, make them ready to accept a new way of living, free living.
That was if we talk about people, their death in revolutions.
But most polititions simply talk about deaths of civilians in this or that conflict, while thinking about interests of their country (or their own). Larry Martines is fully correct naming his article The Syrian Domino and naming the forces interested in this conflict: of course Russia, Iran, HizbAllah and HAMAS will keep supporting Assad since they have a lot of interest in “their” Syria. And the tension will keep growing. I will not be surprised if one day Iran will simply help Assad with military forces straight: Turky will not dare to opposite, US and other Western Countries will loose time talking in UN, Russia and China (simply because the do not like US and Western Hemisphere) will block all initiative, Israel will not start a war on its own with Iran since Iran is a pretty competative power. And will everybody will be thinking what to do, Assad and Iran will win.
And, at the end, I would like to repeat: Assad is a dictator. The regime should be changed. But right now since a good deal of people DO support him he is the legimite power and not the rebelians. Imagine that all American Indians became rebelliance and demanded all their land back and 20 other different countries say that they are sure that Indians have right to demand that and they consider Indians the legimiate power and represenatives of the US – will you give all land to them right away? Not at all. So by my opinian Assad is a dictator, but he HAS the right to defend legimite power from groups of armed gurrilas.
Excellent summary and evaluation, Ty. This event seems to represent blunders at DOD, DOS, the CIA and the NSC. Now we know there was a desire to minimize some of the facts in an attempt not to reveal intel activities and assets in Benghazi. Unfortunately, the pressure to make political hay forced information to be exposed beyond the Senate and House Intelligence Cmtes.
There is no question that the precise communications between Libya and the four agencies above and details of the discussions in those organizations will reveal why fighter aircraft and ground combat personnel were not sent once it was determined that radical elements were attacking with weapons.
Whether the review is public or limited to the intel committees, it needs to be thorough and the procedures for security of DOS personnel in Islamic countries need to be overhauled. I just wish all those who have been using this sad event to divide the nation politically would cork it and let the failure assessments take place without further broadcasting our intel activities and security weaknesses to the world.
The US now repeat USSR’s mistake. When USSR invaded Afghanistan, everybody
thought that the war would end very fast and a new Kommunist country
would appear on the globe. But everything went the same way that is going
out now with the American troops.
Afghans consider each armed foreigner on the territory of Afganistan to be
enemy. No matter that he is helping you now – you are going to be enemy
since you are unlikely leave the country and leave your interests after
all is over.
What do we have now in Afghanistan? Taliban is not defeated. It is waiting for
American troops to leave. Offical government will fall down in a couple of years
after US army leaves Afganistan because this government consists out of different
tribes, clans and extreemly corrupted. It will not be able to resist to consolidated, united by religious idea (up to fanatism) and well
trained Taliban forces that will sacrifice their lives (and lives of any other person) to get back Afghanistan.
Of course Afganistan got a lot of improvment for the last ten years, but it also had
had a lot of improvment after USSR troops invaded it and helped to built infrastructure,
schools, hospitals etc., all, that was quickly destroyed after these troops left the country.
Each Afghan “citizen” used to checking his AK 47 each morning and checking his opium field-he does not care
much about anything else. All this is in his mentality and it is very deap there.
Very good Dr. Steve Hull’s saying: “It would take a truck load of miracles, trillions of dollars, and a generation more of commitment to
bring about the governance, economic and cultural change in Afghanistan ‘promised’ by American policy makers.”
He is fully correct. Are the States ready to sacrifice its prosperity, tens of thousands of lives of US citizens to get
a middle age country out of its dark ages?
The USA should not expect that Afghanistan will be thankfull for it (even if it happens). A lot of crimes made by
US soldgers, acceptence of Pakistany view on boarder line with Afghanistan, mistakes of American troops
bombing civilians – this will remember Afghans and all this makes a growing tension between coalition and Afghans.
Each Afgan can be enemy, even if heshe is very polite with you and vows to help and protect you. Simply because you are on his own
territory, in his country with weapon, control his life.
There are some forces, as usual in every war, that will also try to keep the troops in Afganistan as long as possible.
Drug produce grew many times after the US troops invaded in Afganistan. Afganistan has a lof to natural resourses.
And its territory is a pretty good base to have influence in the region, and to attack Iran if needed.
So this war is simply a geopolitical war. And Polititions, as usual, do not much care about lives of people,
even their own people.
Dear National Security Forum,
There are more than just a few of us engineers out here in the hinterlands that understand data, how to analyze that data and relative costs…and malarkey when we see it. The CFR analysis is correct. Mr. Busby’s response is what we have come to expect from this Administration.
And we remember clearly the fraud in the data manipulation at the University of East Anglia’s CRU that went on for years, because of the built in incentives to do so. Global Warming there is, just as there has been a cycling of warming and cooling for millions of years. But for anyone to seriously want us out here who can still think to believe that ALL climate change is man-produced is wasting his time. Mr. Busby’s technical argument is not based on sound science, and he is paid to promote taking tax payers money to support the Federal Government’s efforts to support winners and losers, and to reward a lot of donors to the Democrat Party. Government support at university level of basic research if fine, but the market needs to be allowed to make return-on-investment decisions.
Little reminder to Mr. Busby: Things aren’t rosy as he portrays in Germany. Read this from Der Spiegel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/problems-prompt-germany-to-rethink-energy-revolution-a-852815.html
and this from Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-11/germany-seeks-to-increase-renewable-target-to-40-by-2020.html
The German people are paying through the nose for subsidized renewable energy production, and they are pushing back. And this is a country that does not use a tenth of the power we do for air conditioning.
If Mr. Busby is really interested in stabilizing and lowering the energy costs for the people of Nevada, then for goodness sakes, support the oil and gas industry’s efforts to produce domestic sources, including rational and environmentally responsible producing from Federal lands. This will certainly go a long way to diminish those dreaded ‘price spikes’ he likes to talk about. There is a lot of hydrocarbon reserves in the Western United States that could be responsibly produced to the economic benefit of the citizens there, and which cost a lot less than the corrupted government-subsidized path he is paid to promote.
I just posted this on a similar article (2008) commentary section in the Washington Post. Charlie Wilson was a positive and persistant part of the process, especially with the Democrat side of the equation, but not an essential one. It would have been interesting what could have happened were he to have disappeared about 1982 for some reason or another.
Let’s get this straight, here the smoking gun of the cold war is revealed to the public in one of the world’s most well known papers (online) and more than four years later no one bothers to post a message.
I have read three of Mr. Kengor’s books on the subject of NSDD-75, and it greatly expands what was already known, how Reagan was head and shoulders beyond everyone, including (at the time) Nixon the presidential Sovietologist, retired. This is meant in the most simple instinctive way of what he wanted to do, take down the USSR (and make it stick), along with increase defense and the economy. He did that, clearly and efficiently. NSDD-75 was the highpoint of the communism goal part.
While Senator Hayakawa’s take was probably correct — that Reagan had great instincts, but often got his homework wrong — in those three main goals he completely successfully cleared the deck. Reagan even confidently directed from the beginning of his presidency “it is time” and that it might work completely in taking down the Soviets. Faith in the right time and place can and does make a huge difference. Almost no one shared his either his vision or views on the subject, and those of the economy, were very viable to the degree he thought. Including a young man about to join the military in 1982, myself. Faith does not need many to share, but it does need one. This is neither necessarily of religious or even positive faith, merely any firmly held belief or conviction. So I personally see as another way to look at NSDD-75 and its background origination.
Instead, we focus on mindless drivel like sensational nonsense of Petraeus boring sex life.
Al these debates in Senate about the national debt is very interesting and not fully undestandable to me. Of course, the USA can afford this: the whole world depends on dollar and can’t go out of it. There is no other way for all the world but to support dollar since we all have it: countries, individuals and if the US economy falls down we all become poor, especially China will loose not only trillions of dollars, but also a huge market.
May be all these debates aim to weeken the dollar, its value, so the debt will become lighter, as it had been done many times before? It will defenetly help: nowdays 16 trillion are equall to 5 trillions many years ago when the country had this level of debt. So the whole world keeps supporting the US and finance all its spendings. The whole world feeds the US economy. The US prints dollars and lends them at some percent, but also inflates it. So printing $1 now that is worth $1 in several years will worth only 60 cents or less. The whole world will pay for this, not the States!
But what is dangerous to the US economy is that slightly the other countries trying to become independant from dollar. The “dollar” market shrinks: now for example in Russia people do not use US dollar much as it was ten years ago. We do not buy it unless we need to go abroad (and not to all countris – pretty often people buy Euro). The trust to dollar is so to say forced: not too much alternative. And it decreases.
Germany doesn’t trust too much to the US economy anymore starting slightly to take their gold back home. When other countris start taking their gold back home this will weeken the dollar more. From the one hand it is good for the US economy and US debt, but from the other it presses on the trust to dollar!
Hovard Latnik, the head of Cantor Fitzgerald says fully correct, that the USA will keep weekening the cost, the value of dollar devaluating it as they have done before. This will happen and is happening. And the whole world keeps silent to all this devaluation. So what for to debate in Senate endangeuring the Economy if the wolrd keeps silent and lets to do anything?
When the world stops buying dollar the US economy will go to pieces. It may happen in the future and may not. It all will depend on the USA and its actions. I would not bring to much attention from the world to national debt of the US and any Senate debates.
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I don’t see the issue here. Pakistan’s actions come straight from the U.S.’s arm’s dealer training manual. It states very clearly if you can sell weapons to both sides of a conflict and maximize your profit. If you can prolong the conflict for even more profit. After all profit and the accumulation of wealth is the only purpose to life. Don’t believe me ask the 2 economists you invited a few weeks ago.
This is economics in a deregulated market, pure and simple. Why is is suddenly evil if it is Pakistan making the profit but U.S., home of 80% of the worlds arms dealers, is exempt from this economic analysis?
They are simply being proper, rational, economists making a profit nothing more. I bet they have copies of Friedman too.
What you want to destroy this profitable, free market arrangement with government regulations? That’s outrageous and I am shocked you would suggest it.
Is this truly a news flash to anyone with intel, or analyst experience? I would have thought not.
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Excellent points, Gary. Sadly, it is an apathetic and acquiescent citizenry that permits such flagrant violations of the oath so many of us have taken in the past. It won’t change until the American people engage.
Thank you for your comments. I think there is an awaking that is starting but main stream media trying to suppress it. We had “a million muslim” protest on 9/11 and only 25 people showed up. On the same, at the same time over 900,000 bikers rode in DC to honor America. Little coverage on either event.
It has been several decades since we were last in touch–you were in the White House and I was pointed toward Somalia. This is just to say that I agree with your article on the Russians and Syria, and I hope a lot of people will read it, including some Republicans.
Whats up this is kind of of off topic but I was wondering if
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No coding knowledge here, either. We use WordPress. It requires zero coding knowledge!
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Ma’am, I couldn’t agree more about there needs to be more education on how to deal with minor infractions of sexual harassment. I have an impeccable service record and no history of wrong doing. I’m being read my rights tomorrow and going to be given an article 15 with the max punishment and be removed from the AGR program for a borderline sexual harassment accusation that is an unprofessional sarcastic comment taken the wrong way. I have never been accused of sexual harassment and never have done anything to warrant it. I did commit wrong doing, and accept that, but am being severely punished due to the knee jerk reaction to the hot button issue. I wish I had a mentor that you had mentioned to help me receive the appropriate retribution for my infraction.
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I wanted to get involved with something about northern Nevada. I met somebody who suggested I contact a person associated with this website. And, regrettably, I find this. Why don’t you just bring all the African women and children to Reno and give ’em as much clean water as they can use? Hey, we’ll all just pick up the check for your feel good project. Oh, do we have our own water problems? Oh, I didn’t know that the absence of clean drinking water could even —at the outer limits of human reason — be considered a problem that mostly impacts women and children. If Africa has societies where men drink clean water and everyone else drinks fetid water then there is absolutely nothing any American can do to improve that society,
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This is an interesting article. With the current situation in the Middle East,one could surmise the Jews abandoning Israel for a new homeland in one of the Russian territories. Because the Russians need new blood in order to prolong their life.
Excellent analysis, certainly one of the most incisive that I have read to date.
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I cannot agree that this is the only deal available and secondly, even if it is, we are foolish to think Iran is going to abide by it. Since no previous “deal” has done anything to stop them, this one is based only on hope. Freeing up their funds is the only thing they need so once they have that, they will certainly continue to do what they wish.
looking for ppt ISIS PLEASE
Thanks Ty, I’am in great informational
& thoughtful…will follow…
Thanks, Bob Lehr
Dear Steve Metcalf,
Re. Do Recent Terror Events Call for Forceful U.S. Intervention or Restraint?
I am not at all trying to discredit your work, but what if your wrong about, ..”Until there is agreement by Muslim governments, clerics and scholars that those passages do not represent Islam in the 21st Century, violent jihadist groups will continue to emerge with increasing frequency.”
What if “Those passages” do actually represent Islam?! Chapter 9 of the Quran is the last chapter that Muhammad wrote before he died. It is one of those most violent. You also didn’t include the Hadith. All Muslims must also seek to follow the life of their Prophet i.e like ISIL is doing. Further there are many more verses for unconditional violence against infidels than there are for peace and tolerance. I personally don’t believe there will be a huge reformation of Islam. Maybe you and your friends should consider and plan on that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERou_Q5l9Gw
With Respect, Dan Pierce
PS. The man in the YouTube video is one of the most knowledgeable scholars about Islam who isn’t a Muslim. Check him out.
For those with the courage, I believe the only way to defeat radical Islam is to attack all Islamic Ideology at the core. Otherwise more background checks, gun control and bombings are not going to defeat this foe.