Summary of the Presentation on….
“Iran’s Supreme Leader: The Grand Ayatollah”
Iranian-born UNR PhD candidate Eliot Assoudeh provided a most informative presentation on the role, influence and future of the Grand Ayatollah, the “Supreme Leader”. Assoudeh discussed that role in Iranian political life, the Ayatollah’s position with respect to critical national security concerns, and who might be next to assume that position—only the 3rd in Iranian history.
After the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Shah, Iran became an “Islamic Republic”, what we in the West might label a “theocracy”. However, Assoudeh pointed out that Ayatollah Khomeini (the founder of the Islamic Republic) stressed that while the authority of the Islamic Republic is “rooted in divine force”; the political system is “limited” by the requirement that its sovereignty is “contingent upon the people’s satisfaction”–thus, neither democracy nor theocracy, but something in between.
The title of Supreme Leader was first given to Ayatollah Khomeini, who ruled from 1979 until his death in 1989. Khomeini conceived “the supreme rule of the jurist” based on his doctrine of “divine sovereignty” for the Supreme Leader; that is, he is not a “representative” of the people, but their “guardian”, or as sometimes referred to, the “god of government”. He was followed by the current Ayatollah, Khamenei, who has held that title for more than 25 years, and is rumored to be dying from prostate cancer
Ayatollah Khamenei’s power is checked somewhat by the “Assembly of Experts”, a powerful 84-person clerical body that officially chooses the Supreme Leader. Once in office, the Ayatollah is the nation’s commander in chief of the armed forces, the head of state, and the “top ideologue”. He rules over such entrenched centers of power as the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij. All candidates for political office in Iran must first be approved by the Ayatollah.
Despite the apparent lock on power, the Ayatollah faces a public that is not always willing to follow his dictates, especially considering that the population is overwhelmingly young and has some access to Western social media. The reform movement in 1997 and the “Green movement” in 2009 demonstrated this check and continue in various forms to counter the Supreme Leader’s authority.
With respect to Israel, Khamenei describes that government as a “terrorist and genocidal regime” that promotes “Iran phobia” and “Shia phobia”, and discriminates internally against Muslims. In a recent “tweet”, the Ayatollah cited the “increasing hatred of Israel” as a sign of “divine help”. On the Untied States, Khamenei has cited American discrimination against minorities, genocide against Native Americans, the use of atomic weapons against enemies (Japan), and a promoter of factional politics in other countries (Iran). More recently the tweets have focused on problems such as the riots in Ferguson, Missouri.
The most important issue today is the Supreme Leader’s position on the proposed nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran. Here, Assoudeh noted, the Ayatollah has adopted a clever position, advocating “heroic flexibility”. That is, the government has been granted the power to reach a deal through compromises; thus, if the deal fails, then the Supreme Leader can claim that he and Iran did everything they could and lay the blame on the Americans and their allies. If it succeeds, he can claim it was due to the flexibility he granted.
Looking ahead to the probability of Khamenei’s demise, Assoudeh offered little hope of a new Ayatollah coming to office and supporting internal relaxation and political reforms. The key candidates are conservative and not inclined to be more responsive to the demands of the younger, less ideological populace. While a Shura, a consultative council, might replace the Supreme Leader, there appears to be little chance of limiting the authority of the Ayatollah.
We were most impressed by Eliot Assoudeh’s incisive analysis of the role of the Supreme Leader, and particularly by the in depth analysis of the Ayatollah’s public statements and communications, including thousands of “tweets” (in four languages!).
Below is Assoudeh’s PowerPoint for your review.
- Tyrus W. Cobb