Summary of Presentation by
BRUCE J. HELD
Deputy Director, RAND Arroyo Center
THE ARMY
AFTER IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN
Bruce Held provided a most professional and informative briefing on the Army’s future after a decade of fighting two major counter-insurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. Held noted that anticipated defense budget reductions along with a new Strategic Guidance will likely mean a significantly smaller Army in the future. However, Held pointed out the budget reductions must be seen in the context of historically high Army budgets over the last ten years.
Held illustrated that the active Army today is at about 577,000 soldiers, with around the same in the Guard and Reserves. The new Guidance programs the active force dropping to 445,000, the Army National Guard to 335,000, and the Army Reserve to 195,000—about a 12% reduction from today’s levels. However, some forecasts see further cuts in the future, with the active Army coming down to 420,000.
Held noted that defense spending in the U.S. now represents about 3.7% of GDP, one the highest percentages in the world; some countries in Middle Ears are higher – e.g. Saudi Arabia (8%) and Iran (4.7%) – with Russia climbing and close behind the U.S. at 3.1%. But there are strong pressures to further reduce that percentage here in the U.S., and further reductions could likely be aimed at the manpower-heavy Army. If Sequestration is not modified, even deeper cuts would be required.
In addition to budget pressures, the new Strategic Guidance has shifted from a mandate to be able to fight two major full-scale operations simultaneously, to being able to fight and win one major conflict while preventing a second adversary from achieving its objectives. That and the “Pivot to Asia” suggest more emphasis on naval and air forces.
Moreover, the Guidance does not size the Army for any “large-scale, prolonged stability operations” that have characterized our defense posture the past decade. While the Guidance does not discount that possibility, it envisions mobilizing the reserves if it does occur. However, Held cautioned in conclusion, we must be prepared to fight the unanticipated conflicts. The defense strategies in the past were not oriented on the wars that did happen—like Korea, the decade-long Vietnam conflict, Grenada, and certainly not Iraq and Afghanistan! He noted the words of former Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld, who famously observed, “You go to war with the Army you have….not the Army you wish you had”. We must insure that the “Army we have” in the future has the competence and flexibility to fight unanticipated conflicts as well as those spelled out in the Guidance, Held concluded.
Bruce Held is the Deputy Director of the RAND Corporation’s Arroyo Center, a Federally Funded Research & Development Center for the U.S. Army. Held is a graduate of West Point with service in combat unit command and staff positions, as well as a manager of numerous R&D projects. Mr. Held holds an MS degree from Stanford in aerospace engineering and a law degree from the University of Maryland.
Held’s slides used in the presentation are well worth a careful review; Click here to view.
—- Ty