SOCHI AND THE SECURITY THREAT
By Tyrus W. Cobb
The 2014 winter Olympic Games will open Friday in the Russian Black Sea resort city of Sochi amid growing concerns over terrorist threats to participants and spectators alike. Islamic militants in the Caucasus have threatened to derail the winter games that run from February 7-23. The Russian security services, led by the FSB (the Federal Security Service, current version of the Soviet KGB) are employing massive and intrusive measures to maintain the safety of the Games, but many fear that dedicated opponents of Russia, Islamic jihadists, and various separatist groups will still be able to perpetrate an event of serious magnitude.
Security officials have a number of serious threats to counter, ranging from organized Islamic groups to “lone wolves” to foreign-based Cyber warriors. There are active anti-Russian insurgencies even in the north Caucasus region of Russia itself, the borders are extremely porous in this mountainous area, organized crime is powerful, the Muslim Brotherhood has adherents, and even some high tech Cyber hackers are active and clever. Armed clashes between Russian troops and insurgents are a daily occurrence, and Moscow has been unable to halt the supply of weaponry being sent to the region to fuel the anti-Russian insurgencies.
Sochi is located in a dangerous zone
The region surrounding Sochi is one of the most volatile and restive in the world. Originally established as a resort city for affluent Russians in the Tsarist days, Sochi flourished and provided a warm and peaceful escape from the brutal winters further north. In addition, the Caucasus Mountains were favorite retreats as well, as Russians sought to find adventure and excitement living with the admired but feared native mountain peoples (see, e.g., Lermontov’s, “A Hero of our Times”).
Today the Caucasus region is a hotbed of ethnic rivalries, Islamic fundamentalism, and anti-Russian and anti-Georgian separatist movements. Sochi is not far from the disputed territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which are at the center of disputes not only between them and Georgia, but the base of much of the conflict between Moscow and Tbilisi.
For a map of the area, please click here. This image is from welt.atlas.de
Just a bit further to the east lie Dagestan and Chechnya, two regions responsible for the creation of virulent terrorist groups and strong Islamic fundamentalism. This is not a new phenomenon—indeed, Chechnya was viewed as such a divisive threat by Stalin that he had almost the entire population of that region deported prior to WWII! Chechnya more recently has generated many recruits for the global Islamic Jihad, dispatching home-grown fighters to far off conflicts from Afghanistan to Libya.
While the Olympic areas are the most desirable target, given heavy security there the terrorists may turn their attention to softer targets in Russia or in the town of Sochi. There is real concern that jihadists may have infiltrated Sochi long before security was tightened. The city’s transport system is viewed as a major potential target.
A primary threat will come from suicide bombers, including the so-called “Black Widows”, wives of those who have perished in the Islamic cause, or by other martyrs. More than 125 suicide attacks have struck Russia over the past 13 years. Most recently back to back suicide bombings in December of a railway station and a bus in Volgograd, about 400 miles east of Sochi, killed 34 people and injured 100 more, and demonstrated the ability of the militants to strike such “soft” targets. A jihadist group in Dagestan, which has threatened to attack the Games, claimed responsibility for the Volgograd bombings.
The “Caucasus Emirate”, an umbrella group for various militant cells who generally act independently, has been led by Doku Umarov, who supposedly issued a vow to disrupt what he calls the “Satanic Games”. It is not clear if Umarov is still alive, but it hardly makes any difference—his role was largely symbolic.
The threat from loosely organized groups largely based in the volatile Caucasus region is the primary concern, but security officials also are concerned by the possibility that so-called “Lone Wolves” might undertake independent actions. They may have cover hiding among legitimate protest groups that might assemble in Sochi during the Olympics, demanding more observance of human rights or better living conditions.
Security measures being undertaken by Moscow
Any event of the magnitude of the Games presents security concerns, be it the Super Bowl, political conventions, rallies, whatever. But Sochi does present a formidable challenge, with two major sites located 30 miles apart, with many participants and visitors traveling back and forth. Transportation will be a key target, particularly the high-speed rail that links the two sites (built at a cost of over $8 billion!)
Russia has taken extraordinary precautions to protect spectators and competitors. More than 100,000 police, security agents and military troops are positioned in and around Sochi. Security agencies, led by the FSB, have instituted blanket screening of all visitors. Private vehicles will not be allowed in Sochi, unless they have been previously registered there. Those commuting on trains have experienced daily searches. Planes are not permitted to fly above the Olympic areas, mainly because of the fear of a missile attack from the ground on them.
Air defense missiles, drones, high-speed patrol boats and sophisticated sonar capable of detecting submersibles, makes it look like, in one critic’s view, “that Russia is preparing to repel an enemy invasion from both air and sea”! Still, many fear that Sochi’s transport sector remains vulnerable.
Many residents in the Sochi region feel that the measures have been both overly intrusive as well as likely ineffective. Police have randomly raided houses, searched commuters on transport systems, expelled thousands of migrant workers, and have employed advanced communications intercept devices. These measures are so pervasive that it caused the U.S. State Department to warn visitors to the Olympics that “they should not expect any recognition of any right to privacy”.
Why is the FSB and affiliated agencies using such measures? Well, partly it’s due, of course, to the unusual and serious terrorist threat. But to an extent, the FSB is doing this because, well, that’s the way the KGB and similar security agencies always did it. Surveillance was always a key pillar for the Soviet regime, and some say not much has changed today. President Putin, we understand, was so impressed by the excellent result of the extensive security preparations for the 1980 Olympic games in Moscow (when he was a junior KGB officer) that he has succumbed to the temptation to replicate that experience. At any rate, Putin feels that he cannot afford for any incident to take place at Sochi, for fear of despoiling Russia’s image.
The FSB has been reluctant to accept any assistance from the United States or other Western countries. There has been some cooperative measures taken, but not as much as Washington would like. The U.S. has deployed some assets to respond to a significant terrorist attack, including placing two warships in the Black Sea, having drones and fighter aircraft on alert or in the air nearby, and has rapid response troops prepared for quick dispatch to the zone.
So, is Sochi safe and what is the future of the Games?
No one should consider the Sochi games as being safe, although the probability of a major attack remains very small. The primary threat will likely come from individuals concealing explosives on their backs infiltrating soft targets, less a threat to competitors but a real one for tourists.
Whether or not a major incident occurs, the Islamic militants have scored a major victory by making the Games so expensive and so laden with a heavy and intrusive security blanket. Having the Olympics so close to a hot bed of Islamic jihadism was a bad idea, but future sites for similar events, including the World Cup in Brazil, will be likely targets and require equally invasive and expensive protective measures.
Some will be asking, “Are these events really worth it?”
Tyrus W. Cobb February 3, 2014 Reno, NV