Attacks on critical installations by computer implanted viruses and codes are multiplying, both in volume and in terms of effectiveness. The attacks have been initiated by nation states, but also by increasingly sophisticated, politically-motivated groups in industrialized countries.

The most recent attack launched by a presumed nation-state was the Stuxnet virus, designed to cripple the Iranian nuclear program. Suspicion as to the source falls, of course, on Israel, with suggestions of U.S. involvement as well. CBS’s “60 Minutes” had an excellent analysis of the Stuxnet program and its impact on Iran recently. The segment also made it clear that such expertise is now not only a capability that a county like Israel could devise, but one that many adversarial nations can most likely develop fairly soon (if they haven’t already).

In the past few years we have witnessed a number of very effective cyber attacks. In 2004 U.S. Homeland Security experts discovered an ongoing series of attacks on Defense, State, Energy and DHS sites as well as defense contractors. The cyber spy ring was traced to computers in Guangdong, China, with the belief that the PRC military was the instigator (China has denied it).

Russia launched crippling attacks on Estonia in 2007 and Georgia in 2008—in the latter more than 2,000 Georgian government computers were taken down and the Foreign Ministry’s own website was hacked and modified with anti-Tbilisi messages!

While countries like China and Russia are believed to have been behind many attacks, increasingly the culprits are non-governmental entities, like “Anonymous”, which is a loose coalition of “activists”. While best known for attacks on FOX News host Bill O’Reilly and the Scientology Church, more recently Anonymous targeted Egyptian government websites during the Arab Spring, and crippled Cairo’s government operations by sending offices thousands of faxes. They also have taken credit for shutting down the websites of the US Department of Justice, and yes, the CIA, and virtually bringing down STRATFOR. A similar group, “Lulzsec”, hacked into numerous government websites seemingly randomly, since it has no known political motivations, and also crippled Sony’s PlayStation.

Do look at the Stuxnet program at the link below. More importantly, remember that while we have little sympathy for Tehran having its nuclear program stymied, don’t think that similar capabilities are not available—and probably in place—to attack and cripple our vulnerable systems that depend on computer operations.

Experts believe that the Chinese have the capability to do great damage to our economic system when they choose. The small probes we see almost every day are characteristic of a well managed effort to test and expand the state of art and find additional weaknesses. Some have speculated that China already has developed (and maybe surreptitiously deployed) the capability to destroy, cripple or immobilize vital American systems dependent on computer operations, from our electrical transmission grids to our power systems (including large dams), air traffic control operations, and most likely, any military application.

That’s the next war, folks, and it could be over in a matter of seconds, with no blood spilled or troops even mobilized. Beijing knows that—do we?

Tyrus W. Cobb

Former Special Assistant to President Reagan

     For National Security Affairs

March 5, 2012