Colleagues: Keith Hansen’s excellent presentation last week on the Nuclear Posture Review generated a number of questions regarding the size of our nuclear stockpile and that of our adversaries and allies. In addition, there were many questions regarding how far President Obama might go in moving to a “No First Use” policy or to “Zero nukes”.
Both seem out of the question now. The article below from the Washington Post Saturday lays out more of the strategic considerations, the bureaucratic infighting, the impact of the Nobel Peace Prize, and the size of global nuclear stockpiles (highlighted and somewhat abridged).
As I looked over the size of current nuclear weapon inventories, I was struck by the fact that between the Soviet Union and the United States we had nearly 70,000 nuclear weapons. What the hell did we think we were going to do with them????
Good background reading on the eve of the announcement of the President’s decision!
Ty
Obama must decide degree to which U.S. swears off nuclear weapons
By Mary Beth Sheridan and Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, March 6, 2010; 12:13 AM
President Obama’s top national security advisers will within days present him with an agonizing choice on how to guide U.S. nuclear weapons policy for the rest of his term.
Does he substantially advance his bold pledge to seek a world free of nuclear weapons by declaring that the “sole purpose” of the U.S. arsenal is to deter other nations from using them? Or does he embrace a more modest option, supported by some senior military officials, that deterrence is the “primary purpose”?
The difference may seem semantic, but such words, which will be contained in a document known as the Nuclear Posture Review, have deep meaning and could dramatically shift nuclear policy in the United States and around the world. The first option would scale back the arsenal’s war role, potentially leading to a smaller U.S. stockpile and taking weapons off alert. The second option would be less of a change, holding out the nuclear threat but still permitting a reduction in weapons. The president was briefed on the document this week and requested additional intermediate options, officials say.
Senior administration officials have indicated that the review is likely to roll back some George W. Bush policies, such as threatening the use of nuclear weapons to preempt or respond to chemical or biological attacks. The review will also point to new ways to cut the Pentagon’s stockpile of roughly 5,000 active nuclear warheads, they say.
The review will “reduce the number and role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, even as we maintain a safe, secure and effective nuclear deterrent,” Obama said in a statement Friday marking the 40th anniversary of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
But, officials say, after lengthy debate, Obama’s aides have rejected some of the boldest ideas on the table, such as forswearing the option to use nuclear arms first in a conflict, or dropping one leg of the “triad” of bombers, submarines and land-based missiles that carry the deadly weapons.
Obama’s decision on the sensitive issue of U.S. “declaratory policy,” officials and outside experts say, will help determine whether the document is regarded as a far-reaching shift from the Bush administration’s version released in 2001. Lower-level officials trying to craft the language engaged in fierce discussions about how far and fast the administration could alter course without alarming allies.
The Nuclear Posture Review is done at the start of each administration, and it influences budgets, treaties and weapons deployment and retirement for five to 10 years. Expectations for this one have been raised because of Obama’s pledge last year to “put an end to Cold War thinking” and move toward global disarmament — a vision that helped win him a Nobel Peace Prize.
The review, more than a month overdue, reflects the tension in seeking to advance the president’s sweeping agenda without unnerving allies dependent on the U.S. nuclear “umbrella.” The Pentagon is also wary of losing options in a world with emerging nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran, officials say.
Until recently, Obama generally has not intervened in the Pentagon-led process, which also involves officials from the State Department, the Energy Department and other agencies. That has raised concerns among arms-control advocates that the final product will be a cautious bureaucratic compromise.
U.S. diplomats hope the final document will establish the Obama administration’s credibility before a nuclear security summit in April and a crucial meeting in May on the fraying nonproliferation treaty. That treaty is at the heart of Obama’s strategy to combat the most urgent threat today: the spread of nuclear weapons to unstable states and to terrorists. The last such session, in 2005, ended in failure, with many countries accusing the Bush administration of trying to scotch their nuclear programs while maintaining one of the world’s most massive stockpiles. .
The review comes as the U.S. military’s precision guided conventional weapons have gained such accuracy that they can handle many threats assigned to nuclear weapons in the past.
Allies are split
But U.S. allies are divided about Obama’s vision. New governments in Germany and Japan have embraced it, but some nations are more skeptical. “A country like ours, with a very special experience with its own history, we are maybe more cautious than some other countries,” said Petr Kolar, the Czech ambassador, referring to past Soviet domination.
Kolar said big policy changes such as promising not to use nuclear weapons first in a crisis could embolden other nuclear-armed powers. “My personal perspective is . . . we shouldn’t actually lose the instruments we so far have,” he said. “What’s the change that would be gained by that?”
Another European ambassador said the nuclear review broke ground in even contemplating such a pledge. But he said it was unlikely while NATO was engaged in a major study of its strategy, due out this fall.
Pentagon officials worry that allies such as Japan or Turkey could decide to develop their own nuclear weapons if they thought U.S. protection wasn’t assured. Skeptics — both Democrats and Republicans — also question whether pledges to limit the U.S. nuclear role would have the impact claimed by proponents, because foes probably wouldn’t believe such assertions. “We’re better off when we communicate that all options are on the table,” said Thomas Mahnken, a senior Defense Department official in the Bush administration. “As a practical matter, they are.”
More than two dozen Democrats, led by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), chairman of the intelligence committee, have pressed Obama to adopt language saying the “sole” or “only” purpose of U.S. nuclear weapons is deterrence. It would not prevent the U.S. government from using a weapon first but would deemphasize that option in planning.
The Bush administration’s 2001 Nuclear Posture Review pledged to reduce the Cold War role of nuclear weapons. But it discussed planning to build new types of “bunker-buster” warheads. It also proposed developing the U.S. nuclear stockpile based not on the current threat posed by potential enemies but on their future capability to carry out nuclear, chemical or biological attacks.
As part of his declaratory policy, Obama will have to consider whether to break with the Bush and Clinton administrations’ studied ambiguity about whether the United States would use nuclear weapons to respond to chemical or biological attacks planned by non-nuclear countries.
The president is expected to adopt that change, but with an important caveat, officials said. The new policy would drop that threat only for countries in compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and thus not working on their own bomb.
Leading by example
The immediate effect of such a policy would be limited, because the potential aggressors that most concern the United States are nuclear powers or accused treaty violators such as Iran. But the move could encourage other countries to stick to the rules of that pact, officials said.
One senior official said the review will “point to dramatic reductions in the stockpile” in coming years.
In particular, the review will push for beefing up the deteriorating U.S. weapons complex and nuclear labs so that the Pentagon can be more certain of its weapons’ effectiveness, officials said. That shift will allow the Defense Department to get rid of some of the roughly 2,000 nuclear warheads it keeps as backups to its nearly 3,000 deployed weapons, officials said. There are also more than 4,000 older, inactive warheads in line to be dismantled.
It is not clear whether such reductions would be part of a formal treaty with Russia.