By: Viktor Frolov

Viktor Frolov — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 14:53:41 +0000

Assad is a dictator: no doubt. But who are the rebelians? Are they all honest and good people? Aren’t the simply a number of different armed groups? If they are, why do not each Syrian citizen support them except a small number of elite Assad’s group? Why there are a huge number of people supporting Assad’s regime?
What will we get if Assad’s regime fall in terms of human rights and democracy? Will we have democratic government right away or will we have a lot of groups struggling for power years and years after like in Lybia or have destabilization process with radicals infiltrating government like in Egypt?
Did we get success in Irak after Suddam? Is it stable? Is it safe?
Only Afganistan became a little better just because there was the worst situation with islamic radicals and they were trying to spread themsleves further – but not I do not see they way out to make it a decent country if American troops leave it – by my opinion it will simply be recaptured by taliban very fast.
Why everybody think that as soon as a regime of this or that dictator fall down all problems will be solved?
I think that as long as the mentality of the people will stay the same these people will get a new dictator who will look decent at the beginning and the world soon will have to solve a new problem.
To make a country good in democratical terms like US, Canada, Germany, UK etc. we need to change people’s mentality, make them ready to accept a new way of living, free living.
That was if we talk about people, their death in revolutions.
But most polititions simply talk about deaths of civilians in this or that conflict, while thinking about interests of their country (or their own). Larry Martines is fully correct naming his article The Syrian Domino and naming the forces interested in this conflict: of course Russia, Iran, HizbAllah and HAMAS will keep supporting Assad since they have a lot of interest in “their” Syria. And the tension will keep growing. I will not be surprised if one day Iran will simply help Assad with military forces straight: Turky will not dare to opposite, US and other Western Countries will loose time talking in UN, Russia and China (simply because the do not like US and Western Hemisphere) will block all initiative, Israel will not start a war on its own with Iran since Iran is a pretty competative power. And will everybody will be thinking what to do, Assad and Iran will win.
And, at the end, I would like to repeat: Assad is a dictator. The regime should be changed. But right now since a good deal of people DO support him he is the legimite power and not the rebelians. Imagine that all American Indians became rebelliance and demanded all their land back and 20 other different countries say that they are sure that Indians have right to demand that and they consider Indians the legimiate power and represenatives of the US – will you give all land to them right away? Not at all. So by my opinian Assad is a dictator, but he HAS the right to defend legimite power from groups of armed gurrilas.

Comments on: Two Compelling Pieces on Syria

By: Viktor Frolov